Numbers, Numbers, Numbers

There is an interesting piece from Common Dreams via the Free Press regarding the Reform Ohio Now amendments, pre-election poll numbers and results. Here’s the jist…

On November 6th, the Columbus Dispatch ran an article based on a poll completed the Thursday before the election based on 1872 registered Ohio voters with a margin of error at plus/minus 2.5 percentage points and a 95% confidence interval. The Dispatch poll revealed the following:

Issue One would pass with 53% of the vote.
Issue Two would pass with 59% of the vote (with 33% opposed and about 8% undecided) .
Issue Three would pass with 61% of the vote (with 25% opposed and 14% undecided).
Issue Four would probably fail with only 31% in support (45% opposed, and 25% undecided).
Issue Five would be a toss up with 41% in support, 43% opposed and 16% undecided.

Now here are the actuals:

Issue One passed with 54% of the vote, only 1% off the Dispatch poll
Issue Two failed with 63.5% against and 36.5% in favor, meaning 22% of those who supported it had to switch and all undecideds voted against it.
Issue Three failed with 67% against and 33% in favor, meaning 28% of those who supported it had to switch and all undecideds voted against it.
Issue Four failed with 30% in favor to 70% against, which means all undecideds voted against it.
Issue Five failed with 30% in favor to 70% against, meaning all undecideds voted against it and 11% of those who supported it switched.

If someone who is a math major or has a math degeree would like to explain to me how a poll which, within 1 percentage point, accurately predicts Issues One and Four, yet is so wildly inaccurate for Issue Three that the complete opposite numbers appear for the poll (61% for/25% against) and the results (67% against/33% for), I would sure appreciate the insight.

Oh, and by the way, there’s this little nugget:

…the Sunday Dispatch also carried another headline: “44 counties will break in new voting machines.� Forty-one of those counties “will be using new electronic touch screens from Diebold Election System,� the Dispatch added.

Makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside, doesn’t it?